The Optimism Bias

Day 32 / 365

In this Ted talk, Tali Short talks about Optimum Bias — A cognitive bias that almost 80% of us have. This bias makes us underestimate the likelihood of us experiencing bad things and overestimate the likelihood of us experiencing good things.

A good example of this is the marriage industry. The average divorce rate in America is 40%. Yet if you ask newlywed couples what’s the chances of them getting a divorce, all of them would say its close to zero. Even divorce lawyers, who have a first-hand experience of the divorce rate, would underestimate the chances of themselves getting one.

Is it good for us?

One argument against the optimum bias is that it leads to an increase in expectations which in turn leads to increased disappointment. The point being that lower expectations are the key to happiness.

But this theory turns out to be wrong because of the following reasons — People with higher expectations feel happier, whatever the outcome. A study among high school students found this to be true. Students with high expectations attributed success to their abilities and failures to the high test difficulty. On the other hand, students with lower expectations credit their success to the paper being easy and failure to their lack of intelligence. Thus more optimum students were happier in both the outcomes.

Why people prefer Friday to Sunday

The anticipation of something good itself makes us happy. This is why more people prefer Friday to Sunday, even though it is a work day. On Friday we have the anticipation of the coming weekend, which makes us feel happy. On Sunday all we have to look forward to is another work week.

Adjusting for the optimism bias

It is a good thing to be optimistic. But at the same time, we should be aware of this bias as well. British government for example adjusted the budget for the London Olympics to adjust for this bias, acknowledging how it can cause individuals to underestimate the cost and duration of the projects.

So always remember -

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst, and accept whatever happens

This story is part of my 365 Day Project for 2019. Read about it here

Yesterday’s blog — The psychology of your future self