A gambling strategy that would always work
Day 103 / 365
Let’s say we play a simple betting game. You’ll bet any amount of money of your choice, and I’ll toss a coin. If it’s Heads, you win and I have to pay the amount that you bet. If it’s Tails, I’ll have to pay you the same amount. We can play any number of times you want.
This seems like a fair game, right? with 50% chance of you winning something. What if I told you that there’s a strategy that you can apply here that would ensure that you always win?
The Martingale Strategy
The strategy I’m about to describe is over 200 years old. Many similar strategies originated in France in the 18th century.
So here’s what you do. Suppose you bet an amount ‘x’ in the first game. If you win, you stop playing. If you lose, you play another game and bet double — ‘2x’. You keep doing this until you win. Let’s go through an example
- You start with a bet of100 Rs. and it’s tails. You are at a loss of 100.
- Next, you double your bet, 200 Rs. It’s tails again, and your total loss now is 300.
- You now bet double again, 400 Rs. It’s finally heads and you win 400 Rs. You walk away with a profit of 400–300 = 100 Rs.
You can look at more examples. This strategy would always give you a net profit eventually. So what’s the catch then? Why isn’t everyone using this?
Well, for one thing, this strategy requires you to have an infinite source of wealth. Your bets increase exponentially, and there’s a chance that you will run out of all your money before you get that win.
Another issue is that most games would have an upper limit on the amount that you can bet. If you don’t get your win before you hit that limit. This strategy would fail.
This post is part of my 365 Day Project for 2019. Read about it here
Yesterday’s blog — How unique are fingerprints?